Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

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ZantiMissKnit
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Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

Just for fun, I thought I would start a thread where people can post their predictions for the Spotted Salamander Big Night for their location.

Anyone want to play? It'll probably be happening within the next 3 - 4 weeks (yes, I'm optimistic and going by historical data).

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Make your predictions!
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mike h
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by mike h »

March 13th.
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

The forecast for Boston this week is near 50 and rain on Friday, and stay mild through the weekend, then get cold again next week.

With all the snow on the ground and the cold weather we've had, surely it will take a while to thaw and Friday's weather won't stimulate anyone to come above ground, I hope.

I'm going for March 14, air temp 44ºF; a Friday, so we can stay out late and not worry about having to work the next day...
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cbernz
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by cbernz »

Things will certainly be on the late side in north Jersey. This is around the time I've found the earliest Blue-spots migrating - fat chance of that happening right now! I'm going to say March 20 for the big Spotted night, and March 8 for Blue-spots.
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SAGlines
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by SAGlines »

I'm going late this year with March 22nd the earliest. You heard it here first.
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Matt J
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by Matt J »

Down here in Delaware I'm predicting March 12th

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intermedius
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by intermedius »

March 18th for Peepers, Blue Spots and Wood Frogs
March 25th for Chorus and Spotties
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pete
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by pete »

March 8 on the cape! :D
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cbernz
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by cbernz »

To be clear, we're talking about the big push, as opposed to the first sighting, right? Those two events can be many days apart.
NACairns
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by NACairns »

I'm thinking March 22 in eastern Ontario.
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

cbernz wrote:To be clear, we're talking about the big push, as opposed to the first sighting, right? Those two events can be many days apart.
I'm saying the big push ("Big Night"), or at least seeing multiples. Mike saw a blue-spotted in mid-January up here in MA, and we know that doesn't mean anything.

ETA: The above shouldn't stop people from making predictions for first sightings. This is purely for fun, and to give people some hope that winter will someday be over.
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incuhead2000
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by incuhead2000 »

Looking at the 10 day forecast I'd guess sometime this July.....no seriously maybe March 14th here in MD.
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cbernz
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by cbernz »

ZantiMissKnit wrote:
cbernz wrote:To be clear, we're talking about the big push, as opposed to the first sighting, right? Those two events can be many days apart.
I'm saying the big push ("Big Night"), or at least seeing multiples. Mike saw a blue-spotted in mid-January up here in MA, and we know that doesn't mean anything.
Around here, you can find small numbers crossing on nights that aren't ideal (like 20 or 30 an hour), but there will usually be one huge night where you'll find hundreds an hour crossing the road. That big night can be really hard to predict. I'll stick with my March 20 prediction, but there will probably be some movement before then (unless we have another big snowstorm).
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brick911
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by brick911 »

Rain tomorrow doesn't seem to be lining up for night. Part of me wished it would just so I could go find at least a few frogs and maybe an early salamander (South of me). Most of me is glad it's not because I know I wouldn't be able to stop myself. Looking at accuweather...

DMVA - March 19th (big push)
Bucks County (my area) - March 19th
North Jersey - March 19th for Jeffs/laterale, March 24th for everything else
Boston area - March 28th
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Larry Clarfeld
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by Larry Clarfeld »

We've still got a ways to go in Vermont. In central Vermont, at my sites of elevation ~1,000 ft, I'm guessing April 26. At lower elevations, in the Champlain Valley, maybe April 10. Winter is far from over up here.
sstaedtler
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by sstaedtler »

Delmarva and extreme Southeastern PA - March 8th
Most of Bucks County, north and central Jersey - March 24th
Boston - March 31st.

2 years ago March 2nd was a big night near me.
Last year, no good herping chances really until March 31st. (excluding Delmarva)
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Trey
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by Trey »

Im going to guess march 26 at the earliest for Cuyahoga county Ohio area.
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Jared Cain
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by Jared Cain »

Sorry guys but I hope late late late and that I am either back in WV or MD by that time :P
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Jeffreyrichard
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by Jeffreyrichard »

ZantiMissKnit wrote:The forecast for Boston this week is near 50 and rain on Friday, and stay mild through the weekend, then get cold again next week.

With all the snow on the ground and the cold weather we've had, surely it will take a while to thaw and Friday's weather won't stimulate anyone to come above ground, I hope.

I'm going for March 14, air temp 44ºF; a Friday, so we can stay out late and not worry about having to work the next day...
Care to update your prediction ??? The Ice Age has descended back on us ...
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

Maybe, Jeff, but I like to be optimistic. If I wasn't, I'd have major cabin fever right now.
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incuhead2000
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by incuhead2000 »

Does anyone else look at the 10 day forecast and feel like this.... :( ....Maybe the Jeffs will move sometime this month...grrr arg.
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The Jake-Man
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by The Jake-Man »

The 10 day forecast for the area I'll go to for spotteds this year is absolutely dismal. Just 2 of the next 10 days will have a high above freezing...
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

I know. Every day, I've been saying, "Winter, I've had ENOUGH of your shit!"
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cbernz
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by cbernz »

Um, is it too late to change my predictions?

It's probably only fair that I stick with my original dates, but I'm fairly certain there is absolutely no way there will be any activity by March 8 in north Jersey, unless the Weather Channel is stupendously wrong about the long-term forecast. I guess March 20 is still possible for Spotteds. I haven't been out at all in like 2 months so I have no idea how frozen the ground is, but as I write this, what little bare ground exists is being chilled by zero degree wind chills at about 20 mph.
tkennedyfour
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by tkennedyfour »

I'm going to have to say March 28 in Ontario, then again i'm just hoping for it because I do an Amphibians course at my college that day, could be later... like not till fall with the -30*C weather today and the upcoming weeks of hell according to the weather network :(
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CrimsonCoils
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by CrimsonCoils »

If you face north and look to your left, you can see the storm smacking the western border of the country. Oh, how I'm looking forward to the snow and ice that's going to spray into our faces. Here goes another one.
Notread
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by Notread »

North Jersey and North PA/Poconos are under heavy snow pack still. It's going to be a long time before migration.
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intermedius
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by intermedius »

Image

This vernal was frozen a few inches down. With 6-12 inches of snow in the way, it's just going to delay things even more
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

I'm thinking now, maybe March 26...
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incuhead2000
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by incuhead2000 »

Has anyone kept records of the latest movement and if so how far back do records go for this type of thing?
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

incuhead2000 wrote:Has anyone kept records of the latest movement and if so how far back do records go for this type of thing?
I don't know. That would be really cool to see.

I don't have accurate records that go far back, and it would take more time to look through the database than I have at the moment. Maybe someone who has been keeping accurate records for a while can chime in.
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brick911
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by brick911 »

March 19th still looking good. Boston might push up til the 21-22nd.
brick911 wrote:Rain tomorrow doesn't seem to be lining up for night. Part of me wished it would just so I could go find at least a few frogs and maybe an early salamander (South of me). Most of me is glad it's not because I know I wouldn't be able to stop myself. Looking at accuweather...

DMVA - March 19th (big push)
Bucks County (my area) - March 19th
North Jersey - March 19th for Jeffs/laterale, March 24th for everything else
Boston area - March 28th
Brendan Murray
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by Brendan Murray »

I think this Wednesday night looks good for a lot of MD. Supposed to turn to snow and get cold later in the night. But certainly will be warm enough early on.
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

brick911 wrote:March 19th still looking good. Boston might push up til the 21-22nd.
Our AccuWeather forecast for March looks like doo-doo.

The temps are too up and down dramatically, and a few more predictions of snow!
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pete
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by pete »

I saw a painted turtle on Saturday and was hoping to hear wood frogs but no dice on frogs. I was way off on my prediction . I've resigned myself to the fact that I'll see em when they crawl an not a moment sooner :D
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cbernz
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by cbernz »

Here's our forecast:

Tuesday: High 58, low 39
Wednesday: Rain, high 54, low 20
Thursday: Snow showers, high 24, low 14

Maybe a good chance to witness a few salamander popsicles. I still haven't been out yet, but the ice on my vernal pools is still thick enough to support my weight.
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

cbernz wrote:I still haven't been out yet, but the ice on my vernal pools is still thick enough to support my weight.
People were walking out to the middle of Ponkapoag Pond in the Blue Hills the other day; someone said the ice was a foot thick.

Their dock got messed up.

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Matt J
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by Matt J »

To quote one Matthew Jennette:
Matt J wrote:Down here in Delaware I'm predicting March 12th
Right now the forecast is 60* and raining at dusk tomorrow. Sounds perfect to me.
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

Matt J wrote:To quote one Matthew Jennette:
Matt J wrote:Down here in Delaware I'm predicting March 12th
Right now the forecast is 60* and raining at dusk tomorrow. Sounds perfect to me.
It's supposed to pour here, too, but only be about 40, then it goes down to the 20s, so I shall live vicariously through you.
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cbernz
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by cbernz »

ZantiMissKnit wrote:It's supposed to pour here, too, but only be about 40, then it goes down to the 20s, so I shall live vicariously through you.
Do you have laterale near you? They'll gladly move in 40 degrees, as long as the ground is mostly thawed and they can access their pools. Of course, they'll stop moving once it drops below 32.
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

cbernz wrote:
ZantiMissKnit wrote:It's supposed to pour here, too, but only be about 40, then it goes down to the 20s, so I shall live vicariously through you.
Do you have laterale near you? They'll gladly move in 40 degrees, as long as the ground is mostly thawed and they can access their pools. Of course, they'll stop moving once it drops below 32.
Yes, we have a fairly healthy population very close to home. My husband may be stopping by there later today; he did find one during a warm spell in mid-January!
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pete
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by pete »

Some peepers and wood frogs moving tonite! Crappy cell pics while walking the dog. Didn't make it to a good salamander spot. Can't wait for the big push!
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cbernz
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by cbernz »

I went to my favorite Blue-spot crossing tonight, and movement was fairly heavy (my friend and I had 30-40 in about an hour of walking). It was very warm today, and some decent rain came around in the late afternoon. When I got there at 9:40 it was down to a few sprinkles. The temperature dropped dramatically during the hour we were there, from mid-40's to low 30's. By now it's probably too cold for any movement at all. Most of the salamanders are probably going to have to shelter in place for several days, since the high tomorrow is going to be in the 20's.

Image
Image
Image

This particular road runs between a wooded south facing slope (hibernating habitat) and an extensive floodplain with woods and marsh (breeding habitat). The slope is totally thawed, but there are snow banks at the edge of the road facing the marsh, and the salamanders seemed to be trying to avoid climbing over the snow. I saw at least one try to burrow under the snow, and for the first time saw several salamanders moving the wrong way across the road, possibly looking for a way around the snow banks. I imagine that with the cold hitting suddenly mid-migration, there will be another push during the next big rain.
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sebastes
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by sebastes »

Great blue-spot photos! It was warmer today so I checked out the vernal up here but so far it's still frozen.... I'm predicting another couple weeks then for here in Upstate NY! (Can't wait for the jeffersons)
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incuhead2000
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by incuhead2000 »

Anybody wanna make new guesses on the big migration? There are still areas around me where the vernals are still waiting for the salamanders to breed and only a few eager males have shown up.
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

I think it will be a couple of weeks here, still. We have had too many days below freezing, and need to thaw out.
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chrisr
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by chrisr »

Do you think there could be any activity here in MA early tomorrow morning before sunrise? It is supposed to rain most of the night...
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

chrisr wrote:Do you think there could be any activity here in MA early tomorrow morning before sunrise? It is supposed to rain most of the night...
I don't know. I was thinking the same thing myself.
mikez
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by mikez »

ground is still frozen in north central Ma, except isolated south slopes.
Rain tonight might move stuff south of here but I'm thinking next rain for my neighborhood.
Probably better chance at seeing snakes basking at den sites if we get a sunny day.
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ZantiMissKnit
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Re: Countdown to Spotted Salamanders!

Post by ZantiMissKnit »

Last weekend, we stopped by a local laterale/maculatum spot and it was still mostly covered with snow and ice. There was a small bit of thaw on the edges of the vernals. It was too cold for that to thaw more until probably yesterday, but I think it will be soon.
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